By Roy H. Williams &
Michael R. Drew (2012)
I.
Obligatory Intro
Over
the last four years, Pendulum is the book to which I keep coming back as
the best explanation of the actions and attitudes of people. I would describe
the central thesis of the book as such: humans have an ever-persistent urge to
adopt one of two value sets for a set amount of time, where we take the good
aspects of those values too far and then gradually shift to adopt the other
value set. The two value sets are ME and WE, which will be discussed in the
next section.
Neither
the ME nor the WE are “better” than the other - individuals may be predisposed
to like the values of one over the other, but that doesn’t mean the other value
set doesn’t have merit. Additionally, people can change - society will move to
adopt the opposite value set in the future. Ergo, it behooves one to comprehend
those values to better understand the public mood.
The
authors do issue a warning: The Pendulum explains the motivations behind groups
of people, not individuals. Very few people will ever have all their
motivations solely within the ME or WE.
Section
II will explain basic traits of the Pendulum, the ME and WE value sets, and
certain clarifications that are warranted regarding the Pendulum. Section III
will cover previous ME and WE cycles in history. Section IV will close with my
thoughts on Pendulum.
*Note:
quoted sections will be from Pendulum, with the page number in brackets,
i.e. [12] refers to page 12 of the book. The book's cover image is from the Amazon link. All following images are from the book's website http://www.penduluminaction.com/blog/
II.
The Pendulum of Society – ME and WE
“What
are the forces that drive the decisions of the public? What makes people do the
things they do?” [1] The answer is simple: a choice between two good things –
the hardest type of choice to make in life. These two choices are the value
sets of ME and WE.
The
ME values focus on individuality and self-expression: each individual person
has free will, granting them unlimited potential to improve their life and thus
the lives of others. Individuals need to be free to not only live their own
lives, but also for leaders to demonstrate to others what is the right way to
live and act.
The
WE is a hunger to come together to solve problems, focusing on the human capacity
to form groups to tackle problems unsolvable by individual means. It is only by
working together that problems in society can be handled, and every person can
have a part in the successful resolution of society’s problems.
Below
are the nine basic values and attitudes of ME and WE [from pages 15 and 16]:
ME
1) Demands
freedom of expression
2) Applauds
personal liberty
3) Believes
one man is wiser than a million men: “A camel is a racehorse designed by a
committee”
4) Wants
to achieve a better life
5) Is
about big dreams
6) Desires
to be Number One: “I came, I saw, I conquered”
7) Admires
individual confidence and is attracted to decisive persons
8) Believes
leadership is “Look at me. Admire me. Emulate me if you can”
9) Strengthens
society’s sense of identity as it elevates attractive heroes
WE
1) Demands
conformity for the common good
2) Applauds
personal responsibility
3) Believes
a million men are wiser than one man: “Two heads are better than one”
4) Wants
to create a better world
5) Is
about small actions
6) Desires
to be a productive member of the team: “I came, I saw, I concurred”
7) Admires
individual humility and is attracted to thoughtful persons
8) Believes
leadership is “This is the problem as I see it. Please consider the things I am
telling you and perhaps we can solve this problem together”
9) Strengthens
society’s sense of purpose as it considers all its problems
Assuming
one is not simple-minded, one can see the good qualities both ME and WE
mindsets have. However, it is human nature to take a good thing too far, and
humans always take the values of ME and WE too far. The ME taken too far leads
people to pretend to be things they aren’t, devaluing their sense of value of
their own existence. The WE taken too far becomes a holy war of Us verse Them:
Us, the righteous defenders of all that is right trying to make society better,
verse Them, those evil people who want to prevent society from being made
better.
It
is this taking good things too far that lead to the Pendulum existing as it
does. Each value set maintains dominance for a cycle of 40 years. In that
cycle, society starts at a “tipping point,” where the majority of society has adopted
a value set. This begins what the authors call a “six-year transitionary
window,” where people are so enamored with the good parts of the new value set
that we feel nothing can go wrong. Then this euphoria wears off, and people
start to take the good things too far. The six-year transitionary window is
part of the 20 year “upswing” where that value set continues to gain influence
up until the “zenith” for that cycle. Here, we begin to miss the values we left
behind, starting the 20 year “downswing” of the Pendulum. In this downswing,
“alpha voices” emerge in technology, music, and literature which provide
glimpses of what is to come. This leads to another tipping point, where the
opposite value set gains prominence, and the cycle continues. A full swing of
the Pendulum lasts 80 years. A helpful image is provided below to better
illustrate this motion.
Take note of the “OK/not OK” statements. Those are broad
generalizations of society’s mood at that point in the Pendulum. “I’m O.K.
You’re O.K.” regards the transition from WE to ME, while the lower one regards
the transition from ME to WE. Each of the four “states” (my word, not the book
authors’) of the Pendulum last 20 years, with 10 years on either side of either
a zenith or a tipping point.
To best understand the Pendulum, one must adopt a unique
definition for generation. The authors define generation as “life
cohorts bonded by a set of values that dictate the prevailing worldview of the
majority.” [28] A generation isn’t tied to arbitrary birth years but rather the
dominant motivating values of most people during a certain time.
Do not try to map ME and WE onto political parties. The
ME-WE distinction does not remotely portray the political divide in any
country. If you try to do so, then you will be forever confused.
For whatever reason, the “East” (primarily defined as
China, India, and Japan) and the “West” (primarily defined as the Americas, Western
Europe, and Australia) have their Pendulums locked in opposite directions. So,
when the East is in a ME, the West is in a WE.
III.
ME and WE in History
The
last ME cycle was 1963-2003. Near the start of the cycle, the US elected a
young, good-looking man, John F. Kennedy, as President. One of Kennedy’s
promises to the country was to land a man on the moon. Why? Because we are the
greatest nation on Earth with the greatest people in the world who can do
anything!
However,
the attitude of “I can do anything” quickly unmoors itself from seemingly
arbitrary restrictions like morality. People in a ME focus on big dreams, and
big dreams taken too far cause people to pretend to be someone they aren’t.
People try to escape from the dregs of daily life and want to imagine living in
a world that might have been. In this time, narcissism and addiction run
rampant. The following quote is from Dr. Richard Grant:
“The great problem
in the United States is not repression or neurosis, which it was in Europe when
Freud wrote about everything. No, the great problem here is not repression –
it’s narcissism and addiction. Those are our great problems in the United
States because Tommy Jefferson set us up. “Life, Liberty, and the … Pursuit
of Happiness!” If you pursue happiness directly, it evades you. But you
feel entitled to it… It’s wonderful, but it has a dark side. And the dark
side is addiction. Addiction. We have done a dance with addiction in this
country from the very beginning.” [129]
It
is that feeling of entitlement towards happiness and success that at least
partly leads people in a ME to take things too far. Winning is all that
matters: the ends justify the means. So long as you can claim success, who
cares about what you trampled to get there?
The
previous WE cycle the West experienced was 1923-1963. A WE is simply a hunger
to come together, so any technology that facilitates this connectedness will
flourish. In the last WE cycle this tech was radio, allowing people to connect
with others across vast swathes of land. President Franklin Roosevelt used
radio exceptionally well in his Fireside Chats to tell people to come together
in the difficult times of the Great Depression: “Together we cannot fail.”
However,
this WE had a dark side to it. “Society will begin to think itself invincible –
the illusion of “United We Stand, Divided We Fall” is that we cannot fail if
we are united.” [57] People will look for any issue or principle that can
serve as a rallying cry to get their group into power. “The focus of every ‘We’
is to identify problems, catalog them, assign blame, and elevate regret. ‘We’
tends to look over its shoulder at the past.” [64] The Jews in Nazi Germany and
the kulaks in the Soviet Union served as scapegoats to unite people behind
their ruling governments. The belief that no one of Japanese descent could be
trusted garnered enough support amongst the people to validate the use of
internment camps against US citizens. This occurred while Americans were
fighting and dying to make dominant worldwide the values in the US Declaration
of Independence while Americans supported repressing those values at home.
The
WE taken too far becomes duty (be loyal, don’t betray your tribe), obligation
(you must be part of the tribe to be welcomed here), and sacrifice (stay
together in spite of high costs). If you do anything that goes against the
consensus of your “group” or your “tribe,” you risk being exiled (or in some
historical cases, tortured or killed). One very interesting fact the authors
discovered about the WE in history: just about every instance of “burnings at
the stake” occurred near the zenith of a WE. For example, the Lateran Council
approved burning at the stake as an acceptable punishment for heresy in 1215
(the WE zenith was in 1223); the Salem Witch Trials began in 1692, eleven years
before the WE zenith for that cycle.
While
these dark events occurred during WE cycles, events I would deem as massive
improvements for humanity also occurred during WE cycles. The Magna Carta and
English Bill of Rights were established during WE cycles. The US Revolutionary
War started in a WE, and the US was established during that same WE. The
Gettysburg Address and the end of slavery in the US occurred in a WE. Fascism
and national socialism rose during a WE and were crushed in that same WE in the
Second World War. While degrees of importance and success may have varied,
great accomplishments have been achieved in past WE periods.
IV.
Closing Thoughts on Pendulum
The
book has many more elaborations and examples of ME and WE in history, but I
hope the few I provided here underscores this point from the authors: “The
reason history must repeat itself is because we pay too little attention the
first time.” [68] While the individuals, events, and societies may differ over
time, human nature and desires are predictable. Learning the motivations and
reasonings behind past historical actors can inform studious observers of the
possible motivations for people in the present day.
Presently,
the US and the West are in a WE upswing, with the zenith in 2023. We will not
enter a ME until 2043. Thus, understanding the WE is imperative for people to
try and hold back ourselves and our fellow citizens from taking the good values
of a WE too far.
Unfortunately,
it seems painfully obvious to me that people don’t want to restrict the worst
impulses of the WE. As mentioned previously, the WE taken too far becomes a
Holy War of Us verse Them, between my “good” tribe and all the “evil” tribes
trying to prevent my dreams from being realized. Many people were willing to
adopt the arguments of “you can’t vote for X because [insert bad outcome here]
will happen! You must support Y! Don’t betray your team, or else bad things
will happen].” This was the generic argument for the 2016 election, and the
2020 election arguments are shaping out to be no different. Any hint at
betraying “your team” and you are branded a traitor and deemed worthless by
your former teammates.
The
best news? Things will only continue to get worse. No political candidates nor
social leaders have demonstrated any willingness to pull back “their side’s”
team taking the WE too far. Those who make any statement hinting that taking “coming
together to solve problems” too far is bad are swiftly criticized, ostracized,
and punished.
Despite
these negative trends, I remain optimistic. Americans will tire of the WE taken
too far. So long as our debt doesn’t come crashing down on us, the people of
the US will emerge from this cycle. I will end with this quote from
President George H. W. Bush:
“Listen to your conscience. Don’t be
afraid not to join the mob – if you feel inside it’s wrong. Don’t confuse being
‘soft’ with seeing the other guy’s point of view. Power accompanied by
arrogance is very dangerous. Avoid self-righteously turning on a friend, but
have your friendship mean enough that you would be willing to share with your
friend your judgment. Don’t assign away your judgment to achieve power.”
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